期刊简介
《冲突解决杂志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）是一份关于人类冲突的社会科学研究和理论的跨学科杂志。该杂志主要关注国际冲突，但也探讨了各种国家、群体间和人际冲突。该期刊2022年的影响因子为3.211。
本期目录
爬梯子：对巡航导弹垂直扩散的解释
Climbing the Ladder: Explaining the Vertical Proliferation of Cruise Missiles
国际投资争端、媒体报道和对国际法的反对
International Investment Disputes，Media Coverage，老舍简介及作品简介，and Backlash Against International Law，
酝酿暴力：外国投资与国内冲突
Brewing Violence: Foreign Investment and Civil Conflict
战时性暴力、社会污名化和人道主义援助：刚果民主共和国东部的调查证据
与冲突有关的性暴力和有罪不罚的危险
Conflict-Related Sexual Violence and the Perils of Impunity
过渡时期司法与国家镇压的逻辑：冲突后国家人权起诉的影响
The Logic of Transitional Justice and State Repression: The Effects of Human Rights Prosecutions in Post-Conflict States
对遥远未来促进和平前景的思考：关于群体间冲突解决的建构层面观点
Thinking about the distant future promotes the prospects of peace: A construal-level perspective on intergroup conflict resolution
文章摘要
爬梯子：对巡航导弹垂直扩散的解释
题目：Climbing the Ladder: Explaining the Vertical Proliferation of Cruise Missiles
摘要：为什么有些国家比其他国家拥有更先进的军事技术？我们的研究探讨了对陆攻击巡航导弹（LACMs）的垂直扩散，试图了解哪些需求端和供应端因素最能解释为什么一些国家会获得更先进的对陆攻击巡航导弹。我们的理论是，国家的安全环境、政权类型、相关战略技术的所有权以及导弹技术控制制度（MTCR）的成员资格会影响到（一个国家是否）拥有更先进的巡航导弹。我们的分析采用了一个独特的新全球数据集，其中包含了各国军队部署的每一枚陆地攻击巡航导弹的细化数据。我们使用这个数据集来评估1991-2015年对陆攻击巡航导弹在整个国际体系中的扩散情况。通过使用一个首次控制对陆攻击巡航导弹水平扩散的选择模型，我们发现不安全感、相关技术的科技专业知识、拥有高度独裁和高度民主的政权以及导弹技术控制制度成员资格都对对陆攻击巡航导弹拥有者的武器库的复杂性有积极影响。
Why do some states possess more advanced military technologies than others? Our study explores the vertical proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs)，seeking to understand which demand- and supply-side factors best explain why some countries acquire more sophisticated LACMs. We theorize that states’ security environments，regime types，possession of related strategic technologies，and membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) influence the possession of more sophisticated cruise missiles. Our analysis employs a unique new global dataset with granular data on every LACM national militaries have deployed. We use this dataset to evaluate the proliferation of LACMs across the international system from 1991–2015. Using a selection model that first controls for the horizontal proliferation of LACMs，we find that insecurity，scientific and technical expertise from related technologies，the possession of highly authoritarian and highly democratic regimes，and MTCR membership all have positive effects on the sophistication of LACM-possessors’ arsenals.
国际投资争端、媒体报道和对国际法的反对
摘要：本文提出了一个理论，通过将媒体报道，特别是新闻媒体在国际争端的选择方面的偏见，与国际协议的公众舆论形成过程联系起来，解释了国内对国际投资法的反对。为了检验我们的理论，我们研究了媒体对国际争端的报道内容和效果，重点是投资者-国家争端解决（ISDS）这种越来越具争议性的形式。我们发现，美国和加拿大的报纸都偏向于报道针对本国的争端，而不是由本国公司提起的争端。通过在美国和加拿大进行的两项全国性调查实验，我们进一步发现，就具有高度民族主义倾向的个人而言，新闻报道选择上的偏差使其对投资者-国家争端解决以及相关协议的态度有很大的负面影响。
This paper puts forth a theory explaining domestic backlash against international investment law by connecting media coverage—specifically the bias in the news media’s selection of international disputes—to public opinion formation towards international agreements. To test our theory，we examine both the content and effects of the media’s reporting on international disputes，focusing on the increasingly controversial form known as investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). We find that newspaper outlets in both the United States and Canada have a bias in favor of covering disputes filed against their home country as opposed to those filed by home country firms. Using two national survey experiments fielded in the United States and Canada，we further find that the bias in news story selection has a strong negative effect on attitudes towards ISDS and related agreements，especially among highly nationalistic individuals.
酝酿暴力：外国投资与国内冲突
题目：Brewing Violence: Foreign Investment and Civil Conflict
战时性暴力、社会污名化和人道主义援助：刚果民主共和国东部的调查证据
题目：Wartime Sexual Violence，Social Stigmatization and Humanitarian Aid: Survey Evidence from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
Sexual violence by armed groups is common in civil wars. Qualitative studies have shown that victims and their families experience social stigmatization. Stigmatization is viewed as a central mechanism to social exclusion and disintegration impeding post-conflict social，political，and economic recovery. We provide new theory on the social conditions under which rape-related stigma intensifies and decreases. Drawing on an original population-based survey in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo，we find that victims and their families experience higher levels of stigma compared to unaffected families and these effects are dependent on community attitudes and norms. Furthermore，we find that humanitarian support interventions designed to address the social nature of stigma can reduce stigma. Our article significantly expands prior knowledge on a central mechanism in post-conflict recovery by providing a refined theory on wartime rape-related stigma and the role of humanitarian aid in mitigating negative effects based on representative data.
与冲突有关的性暴力和有罪不罚的危险
题目：Conflict-Related Sexual Violence and the Perils of Impunity
摘要：“结束有罪不罚现象”常常被誉为阻止战时强奸的关键机制。然而，对于有罪不罚（或缺乏有罪不罚）和性暴力之间的关系，几乎没有系统的证据或分析。我们认为，大赦标志着对性暴力的有罪不罚和纵容，这可能会延续和煽动叛军更多的性暴力。另一方面，审判表明惩罚是有可能的，这可能会产生威慑作用。通过研究1989-2011年期间的所有国内武装冲突，我们发现，大赦与叛军的性暴力有关，这与有罪不罚的信号一致，但我们无法证明审判的威慑作用。虽然这项研究使我们无法断言结束有罪不罚现象将是阻止战时性暴力的有效政策工具，但大赦和随后的性暴力之间的联系证明了有罪不罚的危险性。
“Ending impunity” is often heralded as the key mechanism for stopping rape in war. Yet，little systematic evidence or analyses exist of the relationship between impunity (or lack thereof) and sexual violence. We argue that amnesties signal impunity and permissiveness for sexual violence，which can perpetuate and instigate more sexual violence by rebels. Trials，on the other hand，signal a nonzero probability of punishment，which could have a deterrent effect. Studying all intrastate armed conflicts in the period 1989–2011，we find in line with the impunity signal that amnesties are associated with sexual violence by rebels，but we are not able to demonstrate a deterrent effect of trials. While the study prevents us from conclusively saying that ending impunity would be an effective policy tool to stop sexual violence in war，the association between amnesties and subsequent sexual violence is a testament to the perils of impunity.
过渡时期司法与国家镇压的逻辑：冲突后国家人权起诉的影响
题目：The Logic of Transitional Justice and State Repression: The Effects of Human Rights Prosecutions in Post-Conflict States
摘要：针对战时犯罪的人权起诉往往被认为可以阻止未来侵犯人权的行为，但通常是伴随着国家镇压发生的。本文提出了一种理论，说明这种起诉是如何通过使一些镇压手段比其他手段成本更高（在侵权的公众可见度或易归因于领导层方面），或者通过直接替代某些手段，在国内人权实践中产生不平衡的效果。我们通过对当代冲突和冲突后环境中的新型起诉数据进行多变量概率分析来检验其影响。审判大大减少了对政治监禁和法外处决这些相对明显的侵犯人权行为的依赖，而对不太明显的人身安全权的成效却很有限。此外，审判本身有时被用来直接替代政治监禁。研究结果揭示了人权起诉本身如何成为政府镇压工具箱的一部分，对过渡时期司法和镇压的司法化研究产生了影响。
Human rights prosecutions addressing wartime crimes are often credited with deterring future rights abuses，but routinely occur alongside state repression. This article develops a theory of how such prosecutions generate uneven effects across domestic human rights practice by making some repression tactics costlier than others—in the public visibility of the abuse or ease of attribution to leadership—or by directly substituting certain tactics. We test the implications with a multivariate probit analysis of novel prosecution data in contemporary conflict and post-conflict settings. Trials significantly reduce reliance on political imprisonment and extrajudicial killings，relatively visible abuses，whereas gains for less visible physical integrity rights are limited. Further，trials themselves are sometimes deployed as a direct substitute for political imprisonment. The findings reveal how human rights prosecutions themselves can be part of a government’s repressive toolkit，with implications for the study of transitional justice and the judicialization of repression.
作者自称“1924年以前不太懂俄语,而双目夫明前也只上过一年函授共产主义大学:因作品塑造了保尔·柯察金这个有着钢铁般意志的共产主义战土的形象和作家自身经历的传奇品质,《钢铁是怎样炼成的》成为世界革命青年成才的“教科书”和“圣经”。
对遥远未来促进和平前景的思考：关于群体间冲突解决的建构层面观点
《钢铁是怎样炼成的》第九章感悟是我缓缓合上《钢铁是怎样炼成的》，书中的情节令我铭刻肺腑。保尔早年丧父。被赶出学校后，当了两年杂役才转到发电厂。革命爆发后，他结识了老布尔什维克朱赫来，埋下革命的种子。他敢于向。
题目：Thinking about the distant future promotes the prospects of peace: A construal-level perspective on intergroup conflict resolution
摘要：目前的研究显示，对和平的追求包含了一个内生悖论。拯救生命和减轻人类痛苦的迫切需要要求我们迅速解决群体间冲突的问题。然而，由于人类思维将和平与较长的时间范围联系在一起，人们更期待遥远而非近期的未来和平。六个实验证明了一个强有力的效应，即与思考近期的未来相比，思考遥远的未来会促进和平的前景。这些实验还提供了证据，证明了解释匹配度，也就是将高时间距离与抽象性相匹配的倾向，在这一效应中发挥了作用。我们讨论了对短期和长期的和平干预措施的影响。
The current research reveals that the pursuit of peace entails an inherent paradox. The urgent need to save lives and alleviate human suffering necessitates swift solutions to the problem of intergroup conflict. However，because the human mind associates peace with longer time horizons，people anticipate peace more when considering the distant rather than the near future. Six experiments demonstrate a robust and large effect whereby thinking about the distant future promotes the prospects of peace compared to thinking about the near future. These experiments also provide evidence for the role that construal fit，that is，the tendency to match high temporal distance with abstractness，plays in this effect. We discuss implications for shorter-term and longer-term peace interventions.
编译 | 周杼樾
企业回John Locke 论文竞赛涉及的内容涵盖了人文社科各大领域：经济、法律、政治、历史、哲学、神学、心理学，要求学员的逻辑缜密，知识面广且深，并具有一定自主调研能力以及较强的学术写作能力。下面就给大家解密一下这个比赛的难度和含金量。举办Jo。
审校 | 张曼娜
在寒假中,我读了《童年》这本书.《童年》是高尔基所著,它与《在人间》及《我的大学》被人们称为“自传体三步曲”.高尔基悲惨、令人怜悯的童年故事,让我心里久久不能平静.对于我来说童年会是我是我最宝贵的收藏,但高尔基写的《童。
排版 | 王雨欣
